vendredi, 06 octobre 2023 10:38

'Excess savings' are just regular savings now

As the pandemic-era economy recedes from view, some of the frameworks that defined this moment have been abandoned. Demand is just demand, rather than pent-up demand.

Supply chain problems are just supply chain problems — see: the Mississippi River's record low levels — rather than an outgrowth of pandemic-created economic whiplash.

And now the concept of consumer savings is no longer being seen as one defined by "excess" — either consumers have savings or they don't.

In a note to clients on Thursday, economists at Wells Fargo led by Tim Quinlan wrote the firm will move away from thinking about the concept of "excess savings" from US consumers and trying to estimate how long these savings will last.

Instead, the firm plans to focus on measuring aggregate household checking and savings account balances relative to pre-pandemic trends.

"For many households, the excess savings is long gone," the firm wrote.

"For others, especially wealthy ones, it can last much longer. If you don’t draw the money down, it can last indefinitely. ... Whatever the measure, excess liquidity will be less of a driver of spending going forward."

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